Should You Be Buying What Robinhood Is Selling? | Sidnaz Blog

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In rare cases, such pitches have paid off big time. More often, you’d have done yourself a favor by taking roughly half your money and lighting it on fire instead.

Just as Robinhood isn’t the first brokerage to offer commission-free trading, it isn’t the first to seek to “democratize” investing or to sell a piece of itself to its own customers.

On June 23, 1971, Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc. became the first New York Stock Exchange firm catering to individual investors to offer its shares to the public.

Thirsty for fresh capital in a struggling stock market, Merrill flogged its shares to its own customers, tapping the firm’s “awesome recognition among that vast segment of the population,” reported The Wall Street Journal the next day. “Primarily small investors, the type long championed by Merrill Lynch, quickly purchased the entire amount.”

Nearly 400 insiders at the firm unloaded a total of 2 million shares in the offering. From its initial $28 per share, the stock shot to about $42—a 50% pop—then closed around $39. That valued Merrill at 30.5 times its prior-year earnings, much higher than the overall stock market’s price/earnings ratio of 18.7.

Less than three weeks later, Merrill announced that its net earnings had fallen nearly 50% from the prior quarter.

For the rest of 1971, Merrill’s stock lost 9.4%; the S&P 500 gained 4%, counting dividends.

In 1972, when the S&P 500 rose nearly 19%, Merrill sank 7.7%. And in 1973-74, when the S&P 500 lost 37%, Merrill’s stock slumped by 61%. In its first three full years, Merrill’s stock lost three-quarters of its value; the S&P 500 fell only 5%.

Here in 2021, Robinhood’s offering is one of several trading and investing IPOs:

Coinbase Global Inc.,

the cryptocurrency exchange, went public in April, and

Acorns Grow Inc.,

which helps users invest in tiny increments, said in May that it expects to go public later in the year. Since its Apr. 14 debut, Coinbase is down about 27%. Robinhood fell 8% on its first day of trading Thursday.

One of Wall Street’s oldest and frankest sayings is “When the ducks quack, feed ‘em”—meaning that whenever investors are eager to buy something, brokers will sell it like mad.

Back in 1971, that was the brokers’ own shares. Roughly half a dozen major firms sold stock to the public soon after Merrill, including Bache & Co. and Dean Witter & Co. By 1974, according to data from the Center for Research in Security Prices LLC, several of them had dealt losses at least as devastating as Merrill’s.

In 1987, Jane and Joe Investor got invited to join in on the fun of Charles Schwab Corp.’s IPO, when roughly three million of the offering’s eight million shares were reserved for employees and customers of the firm.

Unlike Merrill, which was rescued from the brink of failure in 2008 when

Bank of America Corp.

bought the firm, Schwab went on to generate spectacular long-term performance. Over the full sweep of time since its 1987 IPO, Schwab is up more than 26,500%, or 17.9% annualized. The S&P 500 gained less than 3,500%, or an average of 11.3% annually.

However, Schwab went public in late September 1987. Only 18 trading days later, on Oct. 19, the U.S. stock market took its biggest one-day fall in history, plunging more than 20%.

Schwab’s stock got brutalized. In their first year, Schwab’s shares fell 59.1%. After three years, the market as a whole had gained 0.6% annually; Schwab’s stock lost an annualized average of 6.9%, according to CRSP.

How many of the original buyers in 1987 stuck around long enough to reap the giant rewards that came much later? That’s impossible to know, but the likeliest answer has to be: very few.

Every once in a while, outside investors in a brokerage IPO do well.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

began trading on May 4, 1999. If you’d bought Goldman stock in the IPO and held it ever since, you’d have earned 9.1% a year, versus 7.6% in the S&P 500, according to FactSet.

Yet Goldman was a giant then, as it is now; it was late to the IPO party because it had held on to its partnership structure for so many years. Most brokerage IPOs, like Robinhood’s, occur when the firms are younger and smaller.

That makes them typical. Companies selling shares to the public for the first time tend to be small, with minimal profits; they also require additional invested capital to sustain their rapid growth.

That’s what Savina Rizova, global head of research at Dimensional Fund Advisors, an asset manager in Austin, Texas, calls “a toxic combination of characteristics that points to low expected returns.”

On average, IPOs have severely underperformed seasoned stocks in the long run. And, history suggests, brokerages doing IPOs are better at timing the market for themselves than for you.

Write to Jason Zweig at [email protected]

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The brokerage app Robinhood has transformed retail trading. WSJ explains its rise amid a series of legal investigations and regulatory challenges. Photo illustration: Jacob Reynolds/WSJ

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Amazon’s New Day Has a Rough Start | Sidnaz Blog

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The results create a bit more of a challenging setup for new CEO Andy Jassy.



Photo:

Patrick Fallon/Zuma Press

OK, so maybe

Jeff Bezos

isn’t quite going out on top.

The final quarter for

Amazon.com


AMZN -0.84%

under the direct management of its famous founder turned out to be a bit of a letdown. Revenue and operating income for the second quarter both fell shy of Wall Street’s estimates, as did the high end of the company’s revenue forecast for the current quarter. It was the first time the e-commerce titan missed the high end of its own sales projections in two years, according to data from FactSet.

Amazon’s


AMZN -0.84%

shares fell more than 7% following the results.

The company is still a juggernaut. Second-quarter revenue rose 27% to $113.1 billion, bringing trailing 12-month sales to more than $443 billion. That puts Amazon well on pace to overtake

Walmart

as the largest U.S. company by annual sales some time next year, while still growing at double-digit rates. Growth at the company’s crucial AWS cloud business also picked up, with revenue jumping 37% year over year compared with a 32% rise in the last quarter. That lines up with trends shown by cloud rivals

Microsoft

and Google earlier this week, suggesting that the market leader, AWS, is at least holding its ground.

But the boom in online sales Amazon enjoyed at the start of the pandemic created a challenging comparison for the most recent quarter. Thursday’s results confirmed the suspicions of some analysts that the company’s Prime Day sales event in late June underwhelmed. Amazon’s online stores segment saw revenue grow by only 16% to $53.2 billion in the second quarter, falling well short of analysts’ targets. Revenue growth from third-party and subscription services decelerated. Advertising revenue, reflected in the company’s “Other” segment, showed a strong jump of 87% year over year to $7.9 billion. But advertising still contributes only about 7% to Amazon’s total revenue.

The results create a bit more of a challenging setup for new CEO

Andy Jassy

as Amazon will face difficult comparisons for the rest of the year following its pandemic-fueled sales jump in 2020. But the bar seems low enough. The midpoint of the company’s revenue projection for the third quarter represents growth of 13% year over year. That would be Amazon’s slowest growth rate in 20 years, even with the pandemic picking back up and possibly driving more sales online.

Amazon’s new boss has plenty to do.

Write to Dan Gallagher at [email protected]

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Smaller but More Frequent Catastrophes Loom Over Insurance Sector | Sidnaz Blog

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Less devastating than mega events such as earthquakes and hurricanes, these secondary perils, as they are known in the industry, happen relatively frequently and include hail, drought, wildfire, snow, flash floods and landslides.

Climate change and urban sprawl are driving a jump in secondary perils losses, said Tamara Soyka, Head Cat Perils EMEA at

Swiss Re.

Insurers and reinsurers, who traditionally focused on predicting big weather events that can cause widespread damage, are increasingly incorporating secondary-peril models.

Swiss Re, for instance, last year started considering pluvial—that is, heavy rainfall, similar to the recent European floods—flood zones when assessing risks.

A storm system over Europe dumped heavy rains in recent weeks, causing heavy floods in Germany, Belgium and parts of the Netherlands and Switzerland. The German Insurance Association on Wednesday said it expects insured losses could hit nearly $6 billion as a result of the flooding in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. It doesn’t yet have estimates for the damage in Saxony and Bavaria.

Before-and-after images show the extent of damage in German towns hit by the region’s worst flooding in decades. Visiting one inundated village, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for more effort to combat future climate-related disasters. Photo: Satellite Image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

This year is expected to be the most damaging for the country since 2002, when insured storm damage totaled about €11 billion, equivalent to $12.98 billion, the association said. While mostly all residential buildings have windstorm and hail coverage, only 46% of homeowners have cover for heavy rain and floods.

Heavy rain, hailstorms and wind in Germany and Switzerland in June have already cost the industry an estimated $4.5 billion, according to analysts at Berenberg.

Analysts at

Moody’s Investors Service

in a note this week said German insurers “may find it challenging to protect homeowners against climate risk without significant price increases.”

Insurers paid out $81 billion for damages related to natural catastrophes in 2020, according to reinsurance giant Swiss Re, up 50% from 2019 and comfortably topping the $74 billion 10-year average for such losses.

Secondary peril events accounted for more than 70% of the $81 billion in natural catastrophe losses last year, according to the data.

Firms expected to take hits to their earnings from the European floods include Swiss Re,

Munich Re AG

and

Zurich Insurance Group,

according to analysts. Spokespeople for Swiss Re, Zurich and Munich Re declined to give estimates of the potential impact.

UBS Group AG analysts project $6 billion worth of losses for the industry, split into $2 billion for primary insurers and $4 billion for reinsurers.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Have you been affected by a natural disaster? What was your experience working with insurance companies? Join the conversation below.

The prospect of more intense weather has insurers rapidly updating their risk-assessment models and recalculating the price of insurance. Property insurers faced an estimated $18 billion bill for damage to homes and businesses from the long stretch of frigid weather in Texas and numerous other states, the equivalent of a major hurricane, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year.

In some cases, the increased frequency of extreme weather events can lead insurers to drop coverage altogether. Some insurers in California chose to not renew insurance policies for homeowners in high-risk areas for wildfires, the Journal reported in 2019. California wildfires the prior two years had killed dozens of people and racked up more than $24 billion in insured losses.

Analysts say the losses from the European flooding will be manageable for the industry. While they may dent quarterly or yearly earnings, they won’t have a seismic effect on their capital. If the coming U.S. hurricane season is a normal one, that will likely crimp earnings further for some.

Flooding in Altenahr, Germany. In some cases, the increased frequency of extreme weather events can lead insurers to drop coverage altogether.



Photo:

friedemann vogel/Shutterstock

The Euro Stoxx Insurance index is up 7.6% this year, trailing the broad Euro Stoxx 600 stock-market index, which is up nearly 15%. The insurance index has fallen 6.4% since March 30, which Berenberg analysts attribute to fears of potential dividend cuts due to recent natural catastrophes.

The costs of reinsurance in Asia and the U.S. went up over the past couple of years owing to hurricanes and wildfires, said Berenberg analyst Michael Huttner. But prices in Europe didn’t increase significantly over that period. The floods will likely help catastrophe pricing increase, said Mr. Huttner.

Will Hardcastle, an analyst at UBS, says this year is shaping up to be the fifth consecutive year that natural catastrophe losses will be above reinsurers’ budgeted level.

“The last five years would suggest you’re not getting appropriate pricing for it,” he said. “It’s always difficult to determine whether the trend is short term. Now at this point you have to be thinking it’s more structural” because of climate change, he said.

Write to Julie Steinberg at [email protected]

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Western Wildfires Are Hitting the Lumber Market | Sidnaz Blog

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Lumber prices finally cooled off. Now come the fires.

Forest fires raging in the West are threatening an important swath of the U.S.’s wood supply, pinching output that has been under pressure since the Covid-19 pandemic touched off homebuying and remodeling booms and sent lumber prices soaring.

Canfor Corp.


CFPZF 3.33%

, one of North America’s largest lumber producers, said that starting Monday it would cut back output at its mills in British Columbia because of hundreds of blazes that have broken out in the Canadian province and challenged its ability to shuttle wood to and from its facilities. The company expects to reduce output at its 10 operating mills there by a total of about 115 million board feet during the quarter.

That is only a sliver of North America’s overall supply. Yet analysts said they expected further curtailments because of fires that are scorching logging forests on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border. In addition, lumber prices have fallen below the cost of sawing boards in the continent’s most expensive place to process timber.

“The wildfires burning in western Canada are significantly impacting the supply chain and our ability to transport product to market,” said

Stephen Mackie,

executive vice president of Canfor’s North American operations.

Traders responded Wednesday by bidding up lumber futures for delivery through January by the daily maximum allowed by exchange rules. September futures rose 7.75% to close at $584 per thousand board feet, a rare up day in the midst of a 66% decline since early May.

Lumber is one of several commodities markets being roiled by extreme weather this summer. The same heat and drought that set the stage for an unusually early and intense fire season in the West have dried up hydroelectric power output and increased air-conditioning demand in the region, which has helped push natural-gas prices to their highest summer levels in seven years.

The lumber market was just getting back into balance when wildfires broke out in British Columbia.



Photo:

JR Adams/Reuters

A lack of rainfall in South American farming regions has left the Paraná River too shallow for fully loaded boats to pass from Argentina’s interior to Atlantic shipping lanes, contributing to high prices for soybeans and corn. Flooding in Germany last week forced the closure of a plant owned by

Aurubis AG

, a major metal producer and recycler, as copper prices hover around all-time highs.

Aurubis said that one of its two facilities in Stolberg, western Germany, was evacuated without injury to employees. The damage is extensive and production isn’t expected to resume until the fourth quarter at the earliest.

“Delivery to customers and acceptance of incoming deliveries are impossible right now,” the firm said.

The lumber market was just getting back into balance when the fires broke out. North America’s sawmills sent workers home at the start of the lockdown and were unprepared for the building boom that ensued. They have struggled to saw logs fast enough to meet demand from home builders, do-it-yourselfers and restaurants that raced to install outdoor seating areas.

Lumber prices topped out in May at more than four times what is typical for two-by-fours, which helped reduce demand, particularly from the more price-sensitive DIY market that buys wood from retailers such as

Lowe’s

Cos. and

Home Depot Inc.

Wood is now piling up at mills.

Mark Wilde, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, said he expects more mills to announce reduced hours and shifts in the coming weeks

“Pricing windfalls like that of the last 12 months are once in a generation,” he said. “It would be crazy to simply return all that cash to the market by overproducing during a weak market.”

The wood-pricing service Random Lengths said in its midweek report that some Western mills have recently unloaded two-by-fours of spruce, pine and fir for below $400 per thousand board feet. Forest-product executives said that mills operating in British Columbia, where the provincial government metes out log supply, usually need more like $700 to be profitable these days.

Wildfires spawned by extreme heat have devastated parts of British Columbia.



Photo:

Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press/Associated Press

Such a high break-even price, along with the threat of fires, outbreaks of wood-boring beetles and distance to the Sunbelt’s mushrooming housing markets, has relegated what was once the continent’s top lumber-producing region to the status of swing producer. That means that the region’s mills—much like U.S. shale producers in the oil market—are likely to be the first to curtail production when lumber prices fall and are then counted on to increase output when supplies are stretched and prices rebound.

Canfor and its rivals have responded by shifting their focus to the U.S. South, where a glut of pine trees has pushed log prices to their lowest levels in decades despite strong demand for finished lumber. They have been quick to invest profits from the recent price surge into the South, which has overtaken Canada as the continent’s top lumber-producing region.

Share Your Thoughts

What impact has the availability and price of lumber had on your home-construction or renovation project? Join the conversation below.

Write to Ryan Dezember at [email protected]

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Robinhood IPO Is No Giveaway | Sidnaz Blog

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Robinhood Markets likes to give away free shares to attract new customers. Its public offering to investors is a different matter.

The offering bears some similarity to recent IPOs such as

Coinbase Global

and

Rocket Cos.,

which made their debut in the midst of crypto and mortgage booms, respectively. Investors had the challenge of trying to chart out a normalized earnings and revenue path. So far, neither of those prior examples have worked out for initial public investors.

Robinhood derives the vast majority of its revenue from trading by its customers, including in cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin. In this topsy-turvy market, it will be quite difficult to forecast what that activity level looks like a year from now. Plus, its primary trading revenue source is payment for order flow, one of the most hotly debated topics in finance and in Washington.

Amid that uncertainty, there is one measure that cuts through a lot of the noise: how much an investor would be paying at the IPO valuation per funded account. That is a way to benchmark Robinhood to established peers in the retail brokerage business.

At the proposed IPO price range set on Monday, a funded Robinhood customer account is worth about $1,500 to $1,600. Contrast that to a long-term average of about $2,000 for E*Trade over the past 15 years, before it was acquired for about $1,800 by Morgan Stanley, according to figures compiled by Christian Bolu of Autonomous Research. Charles Schwab, a much broader wealth- and asset-management business, has traded around $3,600 historically, and is closer to $4,000 today.

Vlad Tenev, co-founder and chief executive officer of Robinhood Markets. It will be Robinhood’s broad appeal that is most vital to justifying the IPO price.



Photo:

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

So that multiple isn’t by itself wild and suggests that, even if Robinhood has to alter its revenue model, it could still be a viable business just by virtue of the number of customers it has. But it also is giving Robinhood credit for a lot of growth it has yet to achieve. Consider that Robinhood’s typical funded account had about $4,500 worth of assets in custody at the end of the second quarter. The established retail brokers’ typical accounts are well into the six figures.

Yes, Robinhood’s accounts on average trade more. But overall, Robinhood still generates much less revenue out of its customers, in part because they are smaller. In the first quarter, average revenue per user was $137 at Robinhood. By contrast, TD Ameritrade and E*Trade were generating more than $500 around the time they were acquired, according to Autonomous. Charles Schwab was above $600 in the first quarter.

So the per-account price implies that Robinhood will either far better monetize its customers in the future, grow them at a much faster rate, or some combination thereof. Faster growth is much more likely, based on recent history: Schwab added 1.7 million net new brokerage accounts in the second quarter, while Robinhood added 4.5 million funded accounts on net. “Expanding the universe of investors has been, and we expect will continue to be, a significant driver of our market-leading growth,” Robinhood writes in the IPO prospectus.

Meanwhile, per-user revenue trends are already slowing. Preliminary second-quarter results given by Robinhood imply a drop-off in average revenue per user to under $120, with Robinhood noting that, while cryptocurrency and options trading are growing, equities trading activity in the second quarter was lower than it was a year ago.

The company can build on other revenue streams, which include margin loans to customers and cash management. But low pricing is a vital part of the company’s mission to expand its customer base. The company is still building out its securities lending platform, which could generate incremental revenue. In the face of slowing trading activity, though—and that includes crypto in the third quarter, according to the company—it is hard to bank on significant per-user revenue growth in the near future.

So it will be Robinhood’s broad appeal that is most vital to justifying the price. That makes the IPO itself a pivotal moment. Robinhood will be distributing potentially over 20 million shares to its own customers via its own platform. If the deal doesn’t perform well out of the gate for any reason, that could frustrate some of its most engaged customers.

Investors might have to wait for the dust to settle on this offering before thinking about nabbing any Robinhood stock for themselves.

The brokerage app Robinhood has transformed retail trading. WSJ explains its rise amid a series of legal investigations and regulatory challenges as it looks forward to its IPO. Photo illustration: Jacob Reynolds/WSJ

Write to Telis Demos at [email protected]

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Netflix May Find No Business Like Show Business | Sidnaz Blog

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Anya Taylor-Joy and Thomas Brodie-Sangster in a scene from ’The Queen’s Gambit.’



Photo:

/Associated Press

It is as good a time as any for

Netflix

to test a new story line. Even a lucky turn in videogames won’t free the streaming giant from the need to keep playing Hollywood’s game, though.

Netflix used its second-quarter report Tuesday afternoon to confirm previously reported plans to enter the videogame business. No timing was given, though the company said the offerings would be included in its current subscription plans at no additional cost. The company isn’t backing away from its work on movies and TV shows, but said in its letter to shareholders “since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.”

That news comes as Netflix remains mired in somewhat of a post-pandemic slump. It added 1.5 million net new paying subscribers in the second quarter, which was a bit better than it had forecast but still its lowest level of growth in nearly a decade. It also projected 3.5 million net adds for the third quarter—about 29% less than what Wall Street was hoping for. That would bring the total number of new subscribers to about nine million for the first nine months of 2021. Netflix added more than 28 million paying subscribers in the same period last year.

A foray into games might make sense for a company with an intimate knowledge of the viewing habits of a user base that now numbers over 209 million. It is also a tough business to crack—even the mobile gaming market that Netflix says it expects to target initially. There are many participants, but most of the money is still made by long-established properties. Games like “Candy Crush” and “Clash of Clans” remain in the top-five grossing charts even after nearly a decade on the market.

Netflix will need to keep battling it out for video streaming eyeballs. The company expects its pace of new releases to pick up in the second half of this year; analysts from Wedbush count 42 original shows and movies expected for the third quarter alone. But the company still has its own track record to compete with: Last fall included popular shows such as “The Queen’s Gambit,” “The Crown” and “Bridgerton.” Netflix shares are down nearly 2% this year, lagging behind many internet and entertainment peers. Streaming investors hyper-focused on subscriber growth aren’t playing games.

Write to Dan Gallagher at [email protected]

Copyright ©2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the July 21, 2021, print edition.

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William Ackman Needs a Soothing Pitch After Universal Music Drama | Sidnaz Blog

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Pershing Square Tontine Holdings had planned a $4 billion purchase of a 10% stake in Universal Music Group.



Photo:

Bing Guan/Bloomberg News

William Ackman’s

blank-check company picked a good target but a poor deal structure. To keep investors happy, both need to be right on a second attempt.

On Monday,

Pershing Square Tontine Holdings


PSTH -1.45%

$4 billion purchase of a 10% stake in Universal Music Group was called off. The world’s biggest record label will be spun off from its French owner

Vivendi

and listed on the Amsterdam stock exchange in September. The SPAC’s investors were offered early exposure to an attractive business at a low valuation.

The deal’s complexity has been part of its undoing. After spending 72% of the SPAC’s cash on the Universal stake, $1.6 billion would be left over for another acquisition. Investors also would get warrants to buy into an additional blank-check deal. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which is scrutinizing SPAC deals more closely these days, said that as more than 40% of its assets would be in a minority stake, Pershing Square Tontine risked becoming an unregistered investment company.

The SPAC’s workaround caused a headache for investors. The Universal shares were to be locked up in a trust for four months, which would trigger a fall in Pershing Square Tontine’s share price—bad news for a sizable chunk of the SPAC’s shareholders who bought the stock on margin. The final nail in the coffin was the SEC’s opinion that the Universal stock purchase wouldn’t meet the New York Stock Exchange’s SPAC rules.

Mr. Ackman still gets his hands on the record label because the

Pershing Square Holdings


PSH -4.85%

hedge fund will buy the stake instead. This way, though, he will tie up a lot more capital in Universal than initially planned. Under the original deal, his fund would have owned a 3% stake but that number could now be closer to 10%.

More pressing is the need to pacify institutional investors and family offices that liked the idea of a stake in Universal and missed out. The deal also was supposed to showcase what the hedge-fund billionaire could accomplish with future blank-check vehicles. It hasn’t been a good start.

Pershing Square Tontine Holdings’ shares are down almost one-fifth since the Universal deal was announced and now trade just in line with their net asset value. Its founder has learned the lesson to keep things simple; the SPAC will do a conventional deal next, according to an investor letter Monday. Investors will be harder to impress the second time around.

Private companies are flooding to special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, to bypass the traditional IPO process and gain a public listing. WSJ explains why some critics say investing in these so-called blank-check companies isn’t worth the risk. Illustration: Zoë Soriano/WSJ

Write to Carol Ryan at [email protected]

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Oil Prices Slide on Fears Delta Variant Will Crunch Demand | Sidnaz Blog

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U.S. crude futures are more than 10% below last week’s multiyear peak, a drop that marks correction territory.



Photo:

Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg News

Oil prices slid Monday morning, heading for their biggest one-day drop in four months as investors worried that the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus will halt travel and dent demand for fuel.

U.S. crude futures were recently down 6.4% at $66.98 a barrel, on track for their worst day since mid-March. Prices are now more than 10% below last week’s multiyear peak, a drop that marks correction territory. They are still up sharply for the year.

Traders in recent days have unwound some wagers that oil demand will continue to climb as more consumers get vaccinated and resume normal travel patterns. Hopes for a demand surge have buoyed oil throughout the year, but rapidly climbing coronavirus cases in some parts of the world are forcing investors to pare back their expectations for the economy. Some traders also remain wary of more travel shutdowns, which would have an outsize impact on oil prices.

“If we stagnate or retrace some of the demand increase we’ve seen thus far, the market will move from being undersupplied to oversupplied into the back half of the year,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, U.S.

Brent crude, the global gauge of oil prices, was recently down 5.7% at $69.41 a barrel.

Oil’s tumble came as stocks also fell on concerns about the economy. Investors on Monday sought shelter in ultrasafe government bonds, pushing down the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to around 1.2%. Yields fall as bond prices climb.

Energy traders also were weighing the news that large global suppliers are set to gradually raise output in the months ahead. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia agreed to ease production curtailments in response to a recent demand recovery, though the Delta variant’s course could change the group’s plans.

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Nvidia Stock’s Surge Makes Chip Maker 10th-Biggest U.S. Listed | Sidnaz Blog

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Nvidia chips’ parallel-computing capabilities make them better than rivals’ for artificial-intelligence performance and mining cryptocurrencies.



Photo:

nvidia corp/Reuters

The post-pandemic boom in the semiconductor business has powered

Nvidia Corp.


NVDA -4.25%

into the top 10 U.S. public companies, joining the likes of Apple Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Shares of the Santa Clara, Calif., firm have risen nearly 80% over the past year, giving it a market value of around $453 billion. That is more than rivals

Intel Corp.

and

Broadcom Inc.

combined.

Nvidia makes processors that power gaming and cryptocurrency mining. Chip shares have risen in part thanks to a pandemic-induced global shortage of semiconductors that has driven up the prices of everything from laptops to automobiles.

One reason for Nvidia’s outperformance, analysts say, is that its chips’ parallel-computing capabilities make them better than rivals’ for artificial-intelligence performance and mining cryptocurrencies. Nvidia’s graphics processors are used for mining ethereum and the cryptocurrency’s value has soared this year, even after a recent correction.

That surge has exacerbated the shortage of gaming chips. Nvidia plans to sell cards aimed at the crypto market and has employed technical adjustments to make gaming processors less useful to miners. Analysts also expect Nvidia to get a boost from tech and autonomous-vehicle companies using its chips to navigate traffic or track online behavior.

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“The company is the biggest and best supplier of parallel computing,” said

Ambrish Srivastava,

analyst at BMO Capital Markets. “It’s hard to compete against that.”

While Nvidia has a leg up in the data-center industry, competitors are catching up, analysts said. The recent slide in crypto also could spur miners to dump their chips on the secondary market, as happened when a previous ethereum skid hit revenue in 2018.

A global chip shortage is affecting how quickly we can drive a car off the lot or buy a new laptop. WSJ visits a fabrication plant in Singapore to see the complex process of chip making and how one manufacturer is trying to overcome the shortage. Photo: Edwin Cheng for The Wall Street Journal

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Robinhood IPO Expected to Value Trading App at About $33 Billion | Sidnaz Blog

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Menlo Park, Calif.-based Robinhood Markets operates a stock-trading platform for individual investors.



Photo:

olivier douliery/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Trading app Robinhood Markets Inc. said it expects to raise about $2 billion in its initial public offering, which would give it a market value of about $33 billion, according to a securities filing Monday.

Robinhood would sell about 52.4 million shares in the offering, and other stockholders would sell about 2.6 million. At the $40-a-share midpoint of the offering range, Robinhood would raise about $2 billion.

The Menlo Park, Calif.-based company operates a stock-trading platform for individual investors.

In the first quarter of 2021, Robinhood recorded revenue of $522.2 million, the company said in a regulatory filing. It posted a loss of $6.26 a share. In the first quarter of 2020, the company’s net loss was 23 cents a share on revenue of $127.6 million.

The brokerage app Robinhood has transformed retail trading. WSJ explains its rise amid a series of legal investigations and regulatory challenges as it looks forward to its IPO. Photo illustration: Jacob Reynolds/WSJ

Write to Matt Grossman at [email protected]

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